Recent Mexico inflation data and Banxico communications have anchored trader consensus around the 3.50–3.99% range for 2026 annual inflation, with 58.5% implied probability. Headline CPI rose to 3.45% year-over-year in September 2026 from 3.26% in August, driven by higher energy and food components, while core inflation eased to 3.75%. Banxico’s November policy statement lifted its fourth-quarter 2026 average forecast to 3.7% and cut the benchmark rate to 6.25%, even as private analysts now project 3.88% for the full year. These developments reflect a disinflation trajectory that has stabilized above the 3% target without accelerating sharply, keeping the 3.00–3.49% and 4.00–4.49% bands as secondary outcomes at 20% each.