Polymarket trader consensus prices Mexico's 2026 annual inflation in the mid-4% range, with 4.50%-4.99% leading at 37.5% implied probability ahead of 4.00%-4.49% (31.5%), reflecting a closely contested outlook amid recent disinflation signals. April 2026 headline inflation eased to 4.45% year-over-year per INEGI—down from March's 4.59% peak and the first drop this year—driven by softer food and housing costs plus seasonal electricity subsidies, while core measures slowed to 4.26%. Banxico's May 7 monetary policy decision delivered a final 25 basis point rate cut to 6.50% in a split vote, signaling cycle's end despite sticky pressures above the 3% target. Private economist forecasts rose to 4.37% year-end versus Banxico's steadier 3.5% Q4 average projection; May CPI data and June policy meeting loom as pivotal swing factors.