Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on near-term momentum, leaving a negative statistical carryover into Q2 amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders price the tight race between 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth ranges as a reflection of this weak base versus offsetting supports, including solid U.S. demand for Mexican exports, ongoing nearshoring investment, and a resilient labor market. Banxico’s May rate cut to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup provides a potential consumption boost. The closely matched market-implied odds underscore uncertainty around whether domestic demand can reaccelerate sufficiently to offset the first-quarter drag.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
-0.5-0.0% 51%
1.5-2.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 26%
<-0.5% 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
25%
-0.5-0.0%
28%
0.0-0.5%
48%
0.5-1.0%
25%
1.0-1.5%
26%
1.5-2.0%
38%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5%+
12%
-0.5-0.0% 51%
1.5-2.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 26%
<-0.5% 25%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 30, 2026
<-0.5%
$4 Wol.
25%
-0.5-0.0%
$24 Wol.
28%
0.0-0.5%
$11 Wol.
48%
0.5-1.0%
$6 Wol.
25%
1.0-1.5%
$2 Wol.
26%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Wol.
38%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Wol.
11%
2.5%+
$0 Wol.
12%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on near-term momentum, leaving a negative statistical carryover into Q2 amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders price the tight race between 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth ranges as a reflection of this weak base versus offsetting supports, including solid U.S. demand for Mexican exports, ongoing nearshoring investment, and a resilient labor market. Banxico’s May rate cut to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup provides a potential consumption boost. The closely matched market-implied odds underscore uncertainty around whether domestic demand can reaccelerate sufficiently to offset the first-quarter drag.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Wolumen
$47Data zakończenia
Jul 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on near-term momentum, leaving a negative statistical carryover into Q2 amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders price the tight race between 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth ranges as a reflection of this weak base versus offsetting supports, including solid U.S. demand for Mexican exports, ongoing nearshoring investment, and a resilient labor market. Banxico’s May rate cut to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup provides a potential consumption boost. The closely matched market-implied odds underscore uncertainty around whether domestic demand can reaccelerate sufficiently to offset the first-quarter drag.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$47Data zakończenia
Jul 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.8% quarter-over-quarter has weighed on near-term momentum, leaving a negative statistical carryover into Q2 amid softening industrial output, services, and household consumption. Traders price the tight race between 0.0-0.5% and 1.5-2.0% growth ranges as a reflection of this weak base versus offsetting supports, including solid U.S. demand for Mexican exports, ongoing nearshoring investment, and a resilient labor market. Banxico’s May rate cut to 6.50% is expected to ease financial conditions modestly, while the June-July FIFA World Cup provides a potential consumption boost. The closely matched market-implied odds underscore uncertainty around whether domestic demand can reaccelerate sufficiently to offset the first-quarter drag.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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