Trader consensus reflects near-certainty that Argentina will not dollarize by June 30, 2026, driven by President Milei's explicit retreat from the campaign promise, stating in April that "people don't want it" amid public opposition. Instead, his administration adopted managed exchange rate bands in January 2026 to stabilize the peso, build central bank reserves gradually, and sustain fiscal surpluses—the first in over a decade—while inflation fell to around 33% annualized without needing full dollarization. Structural barriers persist: insufficient dollar reserves for a currency swap, congressional approval requirements, and focus on ongoing reforms like deregulation and growth projected at 3-4% for 2026. Only an improbable surge in reserves or snap legislative action could shift odds in the remaining six weeks.