Japan's 10-year JGB yield has recently climbed to levels near 3.0%, with the benchmark touching a 30-year high of 3.035% amid surging oil prices, a weak yen, and imported inflation pressures that have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 5%. Traders assign a 66.3% implied probability to the yield closing 2026 above 3.0% because the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with markets pricing further quarterly hikes toward 2% over the coming year. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and sustained spending, are also elevating term premiums through higher anticipated JGB supply. These dynamics have kept longer-term yields elevated despite occasional oil-price relief, positioning the market-implied distribution toward the upper ranges as monetary normalization continues into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,291 Wol.
$29,291 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
4%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
17%
3.0%+
66%
3.0%+ 66.3%
2.8-3.0% 16.7%
2.2-2.4% 4.3%
2.6-2.8% 2.5%
$29,291 Wol.
$29,291 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,360 Wol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,684 Wol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,253 Wol.
4%
2.4-2.6%
$2,552 Wol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,546 Wol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,706 Wol.
17%
3.0%+
$11,189 Wol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan's 10-year JGB yield has recently climbed to levels near 3.0%, with the benchmark touching a 30-year high of 3.035% amid surging oil prices, a weak yen, and imported inflation pressures that have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 5%. Traders assign a 66.3% implied probability to the yield closing 2026 above 3.0% because the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with markets pricing further quarterly hikes toward 2% over the coming year. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and sustained spending, are also elevating term premiums through higher anticipated JGB supply. These dynamics have kept longer-term yields elevated despite occasional oil-price relief, positioning the market-implied distribution toward the upper ranges as monetary normalization continues into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$29,291Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan's 10-year JGB yield has recently climbed to levels near 3.0%, with the benchmark touching a 30-year high of 3.035% amid surging oil prices, a weak yen, and imported inflation pressures that have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 5%. Traders assign a 66.3% implied probability to the yield closing 2026 above 3.0% because the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with markets pricing further quarterly hikes toward 2% over the coming year. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and sustained spending, are also elevating term premiums through higher anticipated JGB supply. These dynamics have kept longer-term yields elevated despite occasional oil-price relief, positioning the market-implied distribution toward the upper ranges as monetary normalization continues into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Wolumen
$29,291Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Japan's 10-year JGB yield has recently climbed to levels near 3.0%, with the benchmark touching a 30-year high of 3.035% amid surging oil prices, a weak yen, and imported inflation pressures that have pushed the U.S. 10-year Treasury above 5%. Traders assign a 66.3% implied probability to the yield closing 2026 above 3.0% because the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting, with markets pricing further quarterly hikes toward 2% over the coming year. Expansionary fiscal measures under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, including record budget requests and sustained spending, are also elevating term premiums through higher anticipated JGB supply. These dynamics have kept longer-term yields elevated despite occasional oil-price relief, positioning the market-implied distribution toward the upper ranges as monetary normalization continues into year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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