Recent softening in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure easing to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March, has tempered expectations for the full-year 2026 average while the Bank of Japan continues policy normalization. The June 16 rate hike to 1%—the highest since 1995—reflects concerns over yen weakness and energy-driven upside risks, even as BOJ staff projections for fiscal 2026 core inflation hover near 1.9%. Market-implied odds across the 2.0-2.9% and adjacent bands remain tightly matched near 50% because traders weigh persistent underlying pressures from import costs against the recent disinflation trend and moderating food prices. Key swing factors include further yen depreciation, crude oil volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, wage settlement outcomes, and upcoming monthly CPI releases that could shift the annual trajectory before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano≤1.9% 99%
2.0-2.4% 99%
2.5-2.9% 99%
3.0-3.4% 99%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
99%
2.0-2.4%
99%
2.5-2.9%
99%
3.0-3.4%
99%
3.5-3.9%
99%
4.0%+
99%
≤1.9% 99%
2.0-2.4% 99%
2.5-2.9% 99%
3.0-3.4% 99%
NOWE
NOWE
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$0 Wol.
99%
2.0-2.4%
$0 Wol.
99%
2.5-2.9%
$0 Wol.
99%
3.0-3.4%
$0 Wol.
99%
3.5-3.9%
$0 Wol.
99%
4.0%+
$0 Wol.
99%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent softening in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure easing to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March, has tempered expectations for the full-year 2026 average while the Bank of Japan continues policy normalization. The June 16 rate hike to 1%—the highest since 1995—reflects concerns over yen weakness and energy-driven upside risks, even as BOJ staff projections for fiscal 2026 core inflation hover near 1.9%. Market-implied odds across the 2.0-2.9% and adjacent bands remain tightly matched near 50% because traders weigh persistent underlying pressures from import costs against the recent disinflation trend and moderating food prices. Key swing factors include further yen depreciation, crude oil volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, wage settlement outcomes, and upcoming monthly CPI releases that could shift the annual trajectory before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Jan 22, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent softening in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure easing to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March, has tempered expectations for the full-year 2026 average while the Bank of Japan continues policy normalization. The June 16 rate hike to 1%—the highest since 1995—reflects concerns over yen weakness and energy-driven upside risks, even as BOJ staff projections for fiscal 2026 core inflation hover near 1.9%. Market-implied odds across the 2.0-2.9% and adjacent bands remain tightly matched near 50% because traders weigh persistent underlying pressures from import costs against the recent disinflation trend and moderating food prices. Key swing factors include further yen depreciation, crude oil volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, wage settlement outcomes, and upcoming monthly CPI releases that could shift the annual trajectory before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Jan 22, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in Japan's core CPI readings, with the measure easing to 1.4% YoY in April 2026 from 1.8% in March, has tempered expectations for the full-year 2026 average while the Bank of Japan continues policy normalization. The June 16 rate hike to 1%—the highest since 1995—reflects concerns over yen weakness and energy-driven upside risks, even as BOJ staff projections for fiscal 2026 core inflation hover near 1.9%. Market-implied odds across the 2.0-2.9% and adjacent bands remain tightly matched near 50% because traders weigh persistent underlying pressures from import costs against the recent disinflation trend and moderating food prices. Key swing factors include further yen depreciation, crude oil volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, wage settlement outcomes, and upcoming monthly CPI releases that could shift the annual trajectory before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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