Recent softening in Japan's core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% range for the 2026 average. June 2026 data showed a 1.7% year-over-year increase, the lowest since August 2022, following earlier moderation amid scaled-back energy subsidies and declining oil prices. The Bank of Japan revised its fiscal 2026 median core-core forecast down to 2.5% in July, from 2.6% in April, while maintaining its policy rate at 1% amid persistent wage growth and yen weakness. These developments, alongside consensus projections near 2%, explain the combined 93.5% implied probability on outcomes at or below 2.4%, with limited scope for higher readings absent renewed supply shocks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 40%
4.0%+ 8.3%
2.5-2.9% 1.9%
$36,027 Wol.
$36,027 Wol.
≤1.9%
40%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
8%
2.0-2.4% 54%
≤1.9% 40%
4.0%+ 8.3%
2.5-2.9% 1.9%
$36,027 Wol.
$36,027 Wol.
≤1.9%
40%
2.0-2.4%
54%
2.5-2.9%
2%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
1%
4.0%+
8%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softening in Japan's core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, has anchored trader sentiment around the 2.0-2.4% range for the 2026 average. June 2026 data showed a 1.7% year-over-year increase, the lowest since August 2022, following earlier moderation amid scaled-back energy subsidies and declining oil prices. The Bank of Japan revised its fiscal 2026 median core-core forecast down to 2.5% in July, from 2.6% in April, while maintaining its policy rate at 1% amid persistent wage growth and yen weakness. These developments, alongside consensus projections near 2%, explain the combined 93.5% implied probability on outcomes at or below 2.4%, with limited scope for higher readings absent renewed supply shocks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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