Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
<2.6% 38.9%
2.9-3.2% 35.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.9%
3.5-3.8% 7.1%
$21,308 Wol.
$21,308 Wol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
39%
2.6-2.9%
39%
2.9-3.2%
36%
3.2-3.5%
33%
3.5-3.8%
16%
3.8-4.1%
39%
4.1-4.4%
39%
4.4-4.7%
11%
4.7-5.0%
22%
>5.0%
31%
<2.6% 38.9%
2.9-3.2% 35.8%
4.4-4.7% 10.9%
3.5-3.8% 7.1%
$21,308 Wol.
$21,308 Wol.
Jan 20, 2027
<2.6%
$260 Wol.
39%
2.6-2.9%
$275 Wol.
39%
2.9-3.2%
$362 Wol.
36%
3.2-3.5%
$363 Wol.
33%
3.5-3.8%
$465 Wol.
16%
3.8-4.1%
$655 Wol.
39%
4.1-4.4%
$532 Wol.
39%
4.4-4.7%
$12,089 Wol.
11%
4.7-5.0%
$366 Wol.
22%
>5.0%
$5,941 Wol.
31%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Rynek otwarty: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,308Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Wolumen
$21,308Data zakończenia
Jan 20, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are pricing South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation with closely matched probabilities across sub-3% and 3.8-4.4% ranges, reflecting the balance between recent disinflation momentum and emerging upside risks. March 2026 CPI rose modestly to 3.1% year-over-year, extending the soft trajectory seen since late 2025, while the South African Reserve Bank’s shift to a 3% target and subdued wage pressures have supported lower market-implied odds for outcomes below 2.9%. Offsetting this, elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel linked to Middle East tensions threaten to lift administered and transport costs, keeping probabilities for 3.8-4.1% nearly as elevated. The next CPI release and any further SARB guidance on the policy rate path remain the key near-term catalysts likely to sharpen these competitive dynamics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania