Elevated global oil prices stemming from Middle East supply disruptions have driven fuel and transport costs higher, anchoring South African Reserve Bank projections for 2026 headline inflation at a 4.4% annual average with a late-year peak near 5.4%. Recent CPI prints at 4.5% in September reflect these pressures, which outweigh contained food and goods price trends and keep the market-implied distribution centered on the 4.7-5.0% and >5.0% buckets. Weak GDP growth of 1.2% and the repo rate at 7.25% underscore the SARB’s commitment to returning inflation to the 3% target only by late 2027, with the November 19 MPC decision serving as the next near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if rate guidance or revised forecasts alter the baseline outlook.