Recent upward revisions in economist forecasts for Brazil’s 2026 IPCA, now at a 4.99% median per the latest Focus survey, underpin trader sentiment favoring the 5.00-5.49% range on Polymarket. The September IPCA-15 print of 0.70% month-over-month lifted the 12-month rate to 4.47%, driven by electricity tariff normalization and food pressures, keeping full-year expectations above the 4.5% upper target bound despite five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts to 13.75%. Slowing GDP growth forecasts at 1.86% and the November Copom meeting add uncertainty, with closely matched probabilities between the 5.00-5.49% and 5.50-5.99% buckets reflecting debates over whether persistent administered prices and external risks will outweigh monetary easing.