Persistent inflation above the Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 CPI rising to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, remains the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for the October policy decision. The central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 12% in July after prior hikes, citing policy lags, Colombian peso strength, and the need to assess prior tightening amid resilient economic activity and elevated inflation expectations. This wait-and-see stance supports the 50.5% implied probability of no change in October, while the 23.5% and 23.4% odds on 25 bp and 50+ bp increases reflect ongoing price pressures that could prompt further tightening if September data confirms the uptrend. Traders price limited scope for cuts given the 8.0% and 3.5% probabilities assigned to decreases. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 meeting, subsequent minutes, and fresh inflation and activity releases that will clarify whether the recent acceleration alters the high-for-longer consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCentral Bank of Colombia decision in October
Central Bank of Colombia decision in October
No change 53%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps increase 6.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
52%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
20%
No change 53%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps increase 6.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$152 Wol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$572 Wol.
8%
No change
$1,494 Wol.
52%
25 bps increase
$200 Wol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$40 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above the Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 CPI rising to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, remains the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for the October policy decision. The central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 12% in July after prior hikes, citing policy lags, Colombian peso strength, and the need to assess prior tightening amid resilient economic activity and elevated inflation expectations. This wait-and-see stance supports the 50.5% implied probability of no change in October, while the 23.5% and 23.4% odds on 25 bp and 50+ bp increases reflect ongoing price pressures that could prompt further tightening if September data confirms the uptrend. Traders price limited scope for cuts given the 8.0% and 3.5% probabilities assigned to decreases. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 meeting, subsequent minutes, and fresh inflation and activity releases that will clarify whether the recent acceleration alters the high-for-longer consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,458Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Persistent inflation above the Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 CPI rising to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, remains the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for the October policy decision. The central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 12% in July after prior hikes, citing policy lags, Colombian peso strength, and the need to assess prior tightening amid resilient economic activity and elevated inflation expectations. This wait-and-see stance supports the 50.5% implied probability of no change in October, while the 23.5% and 23.4% odds on 25 bp and 50+ bp increases reflect ongoing price pressures that could prompt further tightening if September data confirms the uptrend. Traders price limited scope for cuts given the 8.0% and 3.5% probabilities assigned to decreases. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 meeting, subsequent minutes, and fresh inflation and activity releases that will clarify whether the recent acceleration alters the high-for-longer consensus.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,458Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 11, 2026, 11:32 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventosRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Banco de la República’s 3% target, with the August 2026 CPI rising to a two-year high of 6.24% year-over-year, remains the dominant factor shaping market-implied odds for the October policy decision. The central bank held its benchmark rate steady at 12% in July after prior hikes, citing policy lags, Colombian peso strength, and the need to assess prior tightening amid resilient economic activity and elevated inflation expectations. This wait-and-see stance supports the 50.5% implied probability of no change in October, while the 23.5% and 23.4% odds on 25 bp and 50+ bp increases reflect ongoing price pressures that could prompt further tightening if September data confirms the uptrend. Traders price limited scope for cuts given the 8.0% and 3.5% probabilities assigned to decreases. Key near-term catalysts include the September 30 meeting, subsequent minutes, and fresh inflation and activity releases that will clarify whether the recent acceleration alters the high-for-longer consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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