Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 18%
1.0-1.5% 9.8%
$25,781 Wol.
$25,781 Wol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
<1%
1.0-1.5%
10%
1.5-2.0%
33%
2.0-2.5%
31%
2.5-3.0%
18%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
3%
1.5-2.0% 33%
2.0-2.5% 31%
2.5-3.0% 18%
1.0-1.5% 9.8%
$25,781 Wol.
$25,781 Wol.
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$474 Wol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$354 Wol.
<1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,438 Wol.
10%
1.5-2.0%
$8,555 Wol.
33%
2.0-2.5%
$10,918 Wol.
31%
2.5-3.0%
$1,173 Wol.
18%
3.0-3.5%
$433 Wol.
1%
3.5%+
$438 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,781Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$25,781Data zakończenia
Oct 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing a 1.4% quarter-over-quarter rebound from contraction has anchored trader expectations for moderate expansion in the third quarter, yet closely matched probabilities on the 1.5-2.0% and 2.0-2.5% bins reflect offsetting headwinds from subdued domestic demand, private investment caution amid USMCA review uncertainty, and downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts by Hacienda (now 1-2%) and private analysts (around 1.2%). Resilient exports and nearshoring activity provide support, while headline inflation near 3.3% and Banxico’s hold at the 6.5% policy rate signal a cautious monetary backdrop that limits upside. Key swing factors include incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand figures ahead of the October 30 preliminary Q3 release.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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