**Trader consensus at 96.3% "No" reflects the absence of any announced or confirmed plans for a full U.S. Embassy Beirut evacuation by the June 30, 2026 deadline, amid ongoing but managed regional tensions.** Earlier in 2026, the State Department ordered the departure of non-essential personnel and family members in response to security risks tied to Iran-related developments and cross-border activity involving Hezbollah. Core diplomatic functions have continued with reduced staffing since those partial drawdowns, and recent security alerts (including the June 4 update) emphasize a complex but contained environment while urging U.S. citizens to use commercial flights if departing. U.S.-facilitated ceasefire extensions between Israel and Lebanon, along with measures to limit Hezbollah activity in southern areas, have further stabilized conditions around Beirut and reduced the immediate need for additional embassy-level actions. Realistic scenarios that could still prompt a shift include a rapid ceasefire breakdown, direct threats or incidents targeting the embassy compound, or new State Department directives triggered by escalation in the final two weeks. Absent such developments, current diplomatic posture and lack of confirmatory announcements support the prevailing market view.