The fragile post-ceasefire environment following the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to shape trader assessments of any permanent bilateral peace agreement. Hezbollah’s coordinated FPV drone attacks on Israeli military sites in northern Israel on May 12, followed by expanded IDF airstrikes across Lebanon on May 13, underscore ongoing proxy escalation despite the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated truce that halted direct exchanges. US President Trump’s recent statements rejecting Iranian proposals and signaling potential renewed operations, alongside stalled nuclear talks and disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, reinforce the competitive dynamics. No major diplomatic breakthrough has occurred in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on verifiable de-escalation steps, Hezbollah disarmament compliance, and formal bilateral commitments that traders view as distant under current conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$883,239 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
16%
$883,239 Wol.
May 31
$250,637 Wol.
3%
June 30
$317,987 Wol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile post-ceasefire environment following the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to shape trader assessments of any permanent bilateral peace agreement. Hezbollah’s coordinated FPV drone attacks on Israeli military sites in northern Israel on May 12, followed by expanded IDF airstrikes across Lebanon on May 13, underscore ongoing proxy escalation despite the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated truce that halted direct exchanges. US President Trump’s recent statements rejecting Iranian proposals and signaling potential renewed operations, alongside stalled nuclear talks and disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, reinforce the competitive dynamics. No major diplomatic breakthrough has occurred in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on verifiable de-escalation steps, Hezbollah disarmament compliance, and formal bilateral commitments that traders view as distant under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$883,239Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fragile post-ceasefire environment following the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to shape trader assessments of any permanent bilateral peace agreement. Hezbollah’s coordinated FPV drone attacks on Israeli military sites in northern Israel on May 12, followed by expanded IDF airstrikes across Lebanon on May 13, underscore ongoing proxy escalation despite the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated truce that halted direct exchanges. US President Trump’s recent statements rejecting Iranian proposals and signaling potential renewed operations, alongside stalled nuclear talks and disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, reinforce the competitive dynamics. No major diplomatic breakthrough has occurred in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on verifiable de-escalation steps, Hezbollah disarmament compliance, and formal bilateral commitments that traders view as distant under current conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$883,239Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile post-ceasefire environment following the 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict continues to shape trader assessments of any permanent bilateral peace agreement. Hezbollah’s coordinated FPV drone attacks on Israeli military sites in northern Israel on May 12, followed by expanded IDF airstrikes across Lebanon on May 13, underscore ongoing proxy escalation despite the April 2026 Pakistan-mediated truce that halted direct exchanges. US President Trump’s recent statements rejecting Iranian proposals and signaling potential renewed operations, alongside stalled nuclear talks and disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, reinforce the competitive dynamics. No major diplomatic breakthrough has occurred in the past month, leaving resolution dependent on verifiable de-escalation steps, Hezbollah disarmament compliance, and formal bilateral commitments that traders view as distant under current conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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