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Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Polityka·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 43%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.3%

Polymarket

$352,323 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM 43%

Petro - Colombia President 30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.8%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President 1.3%

Polymarket

$352,323 Wol.

Starmer - UK PM

$17,442 Wol.

43%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,105 Wol.

30%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,802 Wol.

10%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,371 Wol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,648 Wol.

1%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,766 Wol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$18,684 Wol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Wol.

1%

None before 2027

$18,845 Wol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Wol.

1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Wol.

1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Wol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Wol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Wol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Wol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,241 Wol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Wol.

<1%

Macron - France President

$11,825 Wol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,576 Wol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,333 Wol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Wol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Wol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,064 Wol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$11,937 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer leads trader sentiment in this market due to Labour’s sharp losses in the May 2026 UK local and devolved elections, which triggered immediate demands from more than eighty MPs for his resignation and reports of cabinet ministers preparing leadership challenges. These developments have elevated the odds of an early exit through internal revolt or snap contest well before the next general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s presidential term ends in August 2026 after the May vote, with his party securing congressional seats but lacking a clear majority for further reforms. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at lower probability amid postponed Communist Party congress proceedings and persistent external pressure, though no confirmed internal challenge has materialized. The remaining candidates trail because their tenures face fewer immediate institutional or electoral triggers through 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$352,323
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Keir Starmer leads trader sentiment in this market due to Labour’s sharp losses in the May 2026 UK local and devolved elections, which triggered immediate demands from more than eighty MPs for his resignation and reports of cabinet ministers preparing leadership challenges. These developments have elevated the odds of an early exit through internal revolt or snap contest well before the next general election. Gustavo Petro ranks second because Colombia’s presidential term ends in August 2026 after the May vote, with his party securing congressional seats but lacking a clear majority for further reforms. Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at lower probability amid postponed Communist Party congress proceedings and persistent external pressure, though no confirmed internal challenge has materialized. The remaining candidates trail because their tenures face fewer immediate institutional or electoral triggers through 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$352,323
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 24 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Starmer - UK PM" z 43%, za nim "Petro - Colombia President" z 30%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 43¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 43% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" wygenerował $352.3K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Apr 27, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", przeglądaj 24 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" jest "Starmer - UK PM" z 43%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 43% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Petro - Colombia President" z 30%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.