Recent developments, including the September 2026 trilateral security agreement signed by the United States, Denmark, and Greenland, have reinforced trader expectations against U.S. acquisition of the territory before 2027. The pact expands American military basing rights, including at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig, and excludes adversary installations while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. Greenland's parliament ratified the deal in early November 2026, with Danish approval pending, addressing strategic concerns without any sovereignty transfer. Consistent public statements from Danish and Greenlandic leaders rejecting any sale, combined with the compressed timeline to year-end and structural requirements for legislative consent in Copenhagen and Nuuk, underpin the 98.6% implied probability for "No." Realistic shifts could still arise from an unforeseen Greenland independence process or abrupt diplomatic reversal, though both remain improbable within the resolution window.