Trader consensus prices "No" at 85.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any direct armed attack on alliance territory amid contained Russia-Ukraine hostilities and dismissed hybrid threats. Recent ceasefire efforts around Russia's May 9 Victory Day collapsed without spillover into NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, while NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte explicitly ruled out Article 5 in March after an Iranian missile incursion over Turkey. Ongoing warnings from NATO generals about potential Russian aggression by 2029 underscore long-term risks, but depleted U.S. munitions and European readiness gaps post-Iran conflict reinforce perceptions of de-escalation thresholds holding firm through 2026. Upcoming NATO summits may address hybrid warfare below the invocation bar.