Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's rejection of renouncing NATO membership aspirations before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Despite President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for Western security guarantees—which he later affirmed would not abandon the alliance goal—trilateral Geneva talks in February 2026 yielded no agreement on neutrality clauses demanded by Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in April 2026 that membership remains unlikely near-term, citing opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US. With no constitutional amendments or official pledges emerging, and ongoing military escalations underscoring diplomatic impasses, traders view such a commitment as improbable before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$98,817 Wol.
$98,817 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$98,817 Wol.
$98,817 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's rejection of renouncing NATO membership aspirations before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Despite President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for Western security guarantees—which he later affirmed would not abandon the alliance goal—trilateral Geneva talks in February 2026 yielded no agreement on neutrality clauses demanded by Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in April 2026 that membership remains unlikely near-term, citing opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US. With no constitutional amendments or official pledges emerging, and ongoing military escalations underscoring diplomatic impasses, traders view such a commitment as improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$98,817Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's rejection of renouncing NATO membership aspirations before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Despite President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for Western security guarantees—which he later affirmed would not abandon the alliance goal—trilateral Geneva talks in February 2026 yielded no agreement on neutrality clauses demanded by Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in April 2026 that membership remains unlikely near-term, citing opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US. With no constitutional amendments or official pledges emerging, and ongoing military escalations underscoring diplomatic impasses, traders view such a commitment as improbable before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Wolumen
$98,817Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80%, reflecting Ukraine's rejection of renouncing NATO membership aspirations before 2027 amid stalled Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Despite President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to drop the NATO bid in exchange for Western security guarantees—which he later affirmed would not abandon the alliance goal—trilateral Geneva talks in February 2026 yielded no agreement on neutrality clauses demanded by Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated in April 2026 that membership remains unlikely near-term, citing opposition from Germany, Hungary, Slovakia, and the US. With no constitutional amendments or official pledges emerging, and ongoing military escalations underscoring diplomatic impasses, traders view such a commitment as improbable before the deadline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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