Ongoing active combat between Russia and Ukraine, combined with NATO’s requirement for unanimous Allied consensus and the alliance’s longstanding position that membership invitations depend on meeting specific conditions, underpins the 96.5% “No” probability. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced substantial aid pledges and reaffirmed Ukraine’s “irreversible path,” yet stopped short of any timetable or invitation, consistent with prior summits since 2008. Recent August 2026 exchanges of strikes highlight the unresolved conflict, while statements from Ukrainian officials note gaps in military interoperability. A verified ceasefire, rapid reform acceleration, or unexpected shift in member-state positions could theoretically reopen the window before 2027, though current diplomatic and military realities make such developments improbable within the remaining timeframe.