Recent Houthi missile strikes on Saudi tankers and renewed embargo threats have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with data showing only one commodity vessel crossing on August 6 versus prior daily averages near 20. Shipping lines are actively rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or holding position, elevating insurance costs and extending voyage times while a multinational maritime defense alliance attempts to stabilize the corridor. These near-term security dynamics keep the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets tightly clustered at 43.5–44.5 percent implied probability, as traders weigh the speed of any tactical de-escalation against persistent risk of further incidents ahead of the August 10–16 resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 46%
180-199 45%
220+ 37%
200-219 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
45%
200-219
10%
220+
37%
<180 46%
180-199 45%
220+ 37%
200-219 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$0 Wol.
46%
180-199
$0 Wol.
45%
200-219
$0 Wol.
10%
220+
$0 Wol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on Saudi tankers and renewed embargo threats have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with data showing only one commodity vessel crossing on August 6 versus prior daily averages near 20. Shipping lines are actively rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or holding position, elevating insurance costs and extending voyage times while a multinational maritime defense alliance attempts to stabilize the corridor. These near-term security dynamics keep the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets tightly clustered at 43.5–44.5 percent implied probability, as traders weigh the speed of any tactical de-escalation against persistent risk of further incidents ahead of the August 10–16 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi missile strikes on Saudi tankers and renewed embargo threats have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with data showing only one commodity vessel crossing on August 6 versus prior daily averages near 20. Shipping lines are actively rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or holding position, elevating insurance costs and extending voyage times while a multinational maritime defense alliance attempts to stabilize the corridor. These near-term security dynamics keep the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets tightly clustered at 43.5–44.5 percent implied probability, as traders weigh the speed of any tactical de-escalation against persistent risk of further incidents ahead of the August 10–16 resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi missile strikes on Saudi tankers and renewed embargo threats have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with data showing only one commodity vessel crossing on August 6 versus prior daily averages near 20. Shipping lines are actively rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope or holding position, elevating insurance costs and extending voyage times while a multinational maritime defense alliance attempts to stabilize the corridor. These near-term security dynamics keep the sub-180, 180-199, and 200-219 buckets tightly clustered at 43.5–44.5 percent implied probability, as traders weigh the speed of any tactical de-escalation against persistent risk of further incidents ahead of the August 10–16 resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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