Canada’s government under Prime Minister Mark Carney shows no signs of declaring U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra persona non grata before year-end, despite a petition exceeding 200,000 signatures criticizing his public comments on trade disputes and references to Canada as a potential U.S. state. Expulsion remains a rare diplomatic step between close allies, and analysts note the petition is non-binding, with parliamentary debate and any government response unlikely to produce action amid ongoing tariff negotiations. Traders assign the outcome only a 3.8% chance because bilateral relations, while strained by reciprocal tariffs and rhetorical friction, have not reached the threshold that historically triggers such a move. A sudden breakdown in trade talks or an unforeseen incident could still shift probabilities, but current diplomatic patterns point strongly against expulsion by the December 31 deadline.