Persistent geopolitical tensions and unresolved security risks continue to suppress Strait of Hormuz traffic to roughly 3-5% of pre-crisis norms of 70-85 daily transits, with recent projectile strikes on tankers, lingering mines, and competing Iranian versus U.S.-facilitated routes sustaining extreme war-risk insurance premiums at 15 times baseline levels. Brent crude near $100 reflects these constraints on roughly 20 million barrels per day of normal flows. The 97.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not normalize by October 31 aggregates trader assessments of these entrenched barriers, including dual transit regimes and sanctions exposure. Tail risks remain limited but include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough clearing mines and aligning routes, or an abrupt cease-fire enabling escorted surges, though such scenarios appear improbable within the narrow window given ongoing incidents and regulatory hurdles.