Ongoing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps strikes on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a October 1, 2026, projectile attack that set a tanker ablaze, continue to sustain elevated implied probabilities for daily targeting events. Since late February 2026, verified incidents have reached 89, with 24 seafarer fatalities and at least 16 strikes recorded in September alone, including four tankers hit over 24 hours on September 28–29. Severely restricted traffic—down to roughly 5% of pre-crisis AIS-visible volumes—reflects heightened war-risk insurance costs and freight premiums, while U.S. naval escorts and counterstrikes on Iranian coastal targets underscore the feedback loop between enforcement actions and retaliatory targeting. Trader sentiment incorporates these persistent kinetic risks alongside potential last-minute diplomatic pauses or route-compliance shifts that could alter near-term resolution odds.