**Ongoing severe restrictions from the Iran-related crisis that began in February 2026 continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 0-5 daily average as the leading market-implied outcome at 55.5%.** Live AIS data and IMF PortWatch metrics show visible transits averaging just 3–4.4 ships per day in early October—roughly 5% of the pre-crisis baseline of 80+—amid Iranian permit requirements, U.S. naval coordination on limited southern routes, vessel seizures, projectile incidents, and elevated war-risk premiums that encourage dark transits and rerouting. Crude flows remain well below historical norms despite intermittent upticks in dark shipments and partial ceasefire efforts, with analysts noting that broader geopolitical uncertainties persist into late October. Trader consensus reflected in the 22% probability for 5-10 and single-digit odds on higher bins prices in the low likelihood of rapid normalization absent major de-escalation before month-end resolution.