The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders underpins the 78% trader probability against its fall before 2028. Despite nationwide protests that began in late 2025, spread across all provinces, and prompted a lethal security crackdown with thousands reported dead, authorities restored order through force, communications blackouts, and elite cohesion. Succession to a hardline successor occurred without systemic breakdown, while ongoing sanctions, naval pressures, and diplomatic standoffs have not triggered elite defections or renewed mass mobilization capable of toppling the Islamic Republic. Recent UN-mediated talks and rejection of Iranian proposals have sustained tensions without immediate escalation to regime-ending levels. Traders price the regime’s institutional durability and coercive capacity as sufficient to navigate these pressures through the 2028 horizon.