Trader consensus on the Iranian regime's survival through October 31 reflects its institutional resilience after the 2025 U.S.-Israel military campaign, the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintained cohesion amid suppressed January 2026 protests, ongoing executions, and severe economic sanctions that have strained the rial and oil exports. Recent diplomatic proposals from Tehran and U.S. restraint on further strikes have reduced immediate escalation risks. With only weeks remaining, no verifiable indicators point to rapid regime change via internal fracture or external action. Late developments such as sudden mass unrest, a major diplomatic rupture, or unforeseen military moves could still shift probabilities, though historical patterns and current conditions make these unlikely within the narrow window.