Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, reflecting the regime's sustained control amid suppressed dissent following the 2025–2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war's aftermath. No verifiable reports of active military plots or high-level dissent have emerged in the past 30 days, with April rumors of IRGC sidelining civilian negotiators—like President Pezeshkian and FM Araghchi—failing to escalate into broader challenges against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Intensified crackdowns on unrest, including internet shutdowns and executions, underscore institutional resilience, while Netanyahu's May 11 speculation on regime change remains external rhetoric without internal catalysts. Significant barriers include IRGC loyalty and surveillance, though sudden escalation in protests or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$1,115,267 Wol.
$1,115,267 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
Tak
$1,115,267 Wol.
$1,115,267 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, reflecting the regime's sustained control amid suppressed dissent following the 2025–2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war's aftermath. No verifiable reports of active military plots or high-level dissent have emerged in the past 30 days, with April rumors of IRGC sidelining civilian negotiators—like President Pezeshkian and FM Araghchi—failing to escalate into broader challenges against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Intensified crackdowns on unrest, including internet shutdowns and executions, underscore institutional resilience, while Netanyahu's May 11 speculation on regime change remains external rhetoric without internal catalysts. Significant barriers include IRGC loyalty and surveillance, though sudden escalation in protests or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,115,267Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, reflecting the regime's sustained control amid suppressed dissent following the 2025–2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war's aftermath. No verifiable reports of active military plots or high-level dissent have emerged in the past 30 days, with April rumors of IRGC sidelining civilian negotiators—like President Pezeshkian and FM Araghchi—failing to escalate into broader challenges against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Intensified crackdowns on unrest, including internet shutdowns and executions, underscore institutional resilience, while Netanyahu's May 11 speculation on regime change remains external rhetoric without internal catalysts. Significant barriers include IRGC loyalty and surveillance, though sudden escalation in protests or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$1,115,267Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in Iran by June 30, reflecting the regime's sustained control amid suppressed dissent following the 2025–2026 protests and the 2026 Iran war's aftermath. No verifiable reports of active military plots or high-level dissent have emerged in the past 30 days, with April rumors of IRGC sidelining civilian negotiators—like President Pezeshkian and FM Araghchi—failing to escalate into broader challenges against Supreme Leader Khamenei. Intensified crackdowns on unrest, including internet shutdowns and executions, underscore institutional resilience, while Netanyahu's May 11 speculation on regime change remains external rhetoric without internal catalysts. Significant barriers include IRGC loyalty and surveillance, though sudden escalation in protests or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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