The U.S. has backed a stabilization process under interim President Delcy Rodríguez following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 capture, prioritizing security cooperation, oil revenue arrangements, and phased political talks that exclude María Corina Machado’s movement and Edmundo González. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has outlined a multi-stage approach focused on reconciliation before elections, while administration officials have discouraged Machado’s return from exile to avoid complicating those efforts. This policy alignment, reinforced by ongoing engagement with the current interim authorities and absence of any formal recognition of Machado, underpins traders’ near-certain view that recognition will not occur by year-end. Late developments such as rapid shifts in U.S. priorities, breakthrough negotiations including her faction, or unforeseen crises could still alter the timeline.