Several 2026 Senate contests show tight polling margins under 5 points in recent aggregates, driving elevated trader probabilities for races such as the Ohio special, Michigan open seat, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Democratic leads on the generic ballot around 7 points have tightened contests in Republican-held or open battlegrounds, including North Carolina where former Governor Roy Cooper leads, Texas between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, and New Hampshire’s open seat. Incumbent Susan Collins faces a competitive challenge in Maine, while Michigan’s open race and Alaska’s ranked-choice dynamics keep those within striking distance. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still alter final margins in these states.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$63,184 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Kansas
72%
Alaska
68%
Michigan
62%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Maine
51%
Nebraska
45%
New Hampshire
39%
South Carolina
42%
Georgia
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
North Carolina
25%
Minnesota
18%
New Mexico
12%
Montana
7%
Colorado
5%
Virginia
4%
$63,184 Wol.
Texas
$7,131 Wol.
83%
Kansas
$556 Wol.
72%
Alaska
$2,789 Wol.
68%
Michigan
$2,743 Wol.
62%
Iowa
$5,651 Wol.
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,966 Wol.
56%
Maine
$1,020 Wol.
51%
Nebraska
$3,687 Wol.
45%
New Hampshire
$2,402 Wol.
39%
South Carolina
$109 Wol.
42%
Georgia
$1,413 Wol.
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Wol.
25%
North Carolina
$5,753 Wol.
25%
Minnesota
$9,915 Wol.
18%
New Mexico
$6,665 Wol.
12%
Montana
$2,990 Wol.
7%
Colorado
$2,599 Wol.
5%
Virginia
$1,344 Wol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests show tight polling margins under 5 points in recent aggregates, driving elevated trader probabilities for races such as the Ohio special, Michigan open seat, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Democratic leads on the generic ballot around 7 points have tightened contests in Republican-held or open battlegrounds, including North Carolina where former Governor Roy Cooper leads, Texas between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, and New Hampshire’s open seat. Incumbent Susan Collins faces a competitive challenge in Maine, while Michigan’s open race and Alaska’s ranked-choice dynamics keep those within striking distance. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still alter final margins in these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$63,184Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests show tight polling margins under 5 points in recent aggregates, driving elevated trader probabilities for races such as the Ohio special, Michigan open seat, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Democratic leads on the generic ballot around 7 points have tightened contests in Republican-held or open battlegrounds, including North Carolina where former Governor Roy Cooper leads, Texas between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, and New Hampshire’s open seat. Incumbent Susan Collins faces a competitive challenge in Maine, while Michigan’s open race and Alaska’s ranked-choice dynamics keep those within striking distance. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still alter final margins in these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$63,184Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate contests show tight polling margins under 5 points in recent aggregates, driving elevated trader probabilities for races such as the Ohio special, Michigan open seat, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. Democratic leads on the generic ballot around 7 points have tightened contests in Republican-held or open battlegrounds, including North Carolina where former Governor Roy Cooper leads, Texas between James Talarico and Ken Paxton, and New Hampshire’s open seat. Incumbent Susan Collins faces a competitive challenge in Maine, while Michigan’s open race and Alaska’s ranked-choice dynamics keep those within striking distance. With Election Day on November 3, late shifts in turnout or national conditions could still alter final margins in these states.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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