**Michigan leads trader consensus among Democratic tossup Senate opportunities due to its position as a premier battleground with an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement.** Recent polling shows the matchup between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remaining close after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory, reflecting the state’s narrow 2024 presidential margin and established Democratic infrastructure. Maine follows because of Susan Collins’ long tenure in a state Kamala Harris carried, though Democratic nominee Troy Jackson faces consolidation challenges after an earlier primary shift. Alaska ranks next with Mary Peltola’s proven statewide appeal against Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, bolstered by her strong primary performance. Iowa, Texas, and Ohio trail amid open or special-election dynamics and recent raters’ upgrades to tossup status, driven by candidates like James Talarico and Sherrod Brown showing competitiveness in polling, yet facing steeper structural headwinds in red-leaning states. These probabilities capture traders’ assessment of candidate strength, polling trends, and national environment factors heading into November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 43%
Maine 21%
Alaska 20%
Iowa 9.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
43%
Maine
21%
Alaska
20%
Iowa
9%
Texas
8%
Ohio
5%
Michigan 43%
Maine 21%
Alaska 20%
Iowa 9.3%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,547 Wol.
43%
Maine
$190 Wol.
21%
Alaska
$199 Wol.
20%
Iowa
$109 Wol.
9%
Texas
$109 Wol.
8%
Ohio
$271 Wol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus among Democratic tossup Senate opportunities due to its position as a premier battleground with an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement.** Recent polling shows the matchup between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remaining close after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory, reflecting the state’s narrow 2024 presidential margin and established Democratic infrastructure. Maine follows because of Susan Collins’ long tenure in a state Kamala Harris carried, though Democratic nominee Troy Jackson faces consolidation challenges after an earlier primary shift. Alaska ranks next with Mary Peltola’s proven statewide appeal against Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, bolstered by her strong primary performance. Iowa, Texas, and Ohio trail amid open or special-election dynamics and recent raters’ upgrades to tossup status, driven by candidates like James Talarico and Sherrod Brown showing competitiveness in polling, yet facing steeper structural headwinds in red-leaning states. These probabilities capture traders’ assessment of candidate strength, polling trends, and national environment factors heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,425Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus among Democratic tossup Senate opportunities due to its position as a premier battleground with an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement.** Recent polling shows the matchup between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remaining close after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory, reflecting the state’s narrow 2024 presidential margin and established Democratic infrastructure. Maine follows because of Susan Collins’ long tenure in a state Kamala Harris carried, though Democratic nominee Troy Jackson faces consolidation challenges after an earlier primary shift. Alaska ranks next with Mary Peltola’s proven statewide appeal against Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, bolstered by her strong primary performance. Iowa, Texas, and Ohio trail amid open or special-election dynamics and recent raters’ upgrades to tossup status, driven by candidates like James Talarico and Sherrod Brown showing competitiveness in polling, yet facing steeper structural headwinds in red-leaning states. These probabilities capture traders’ assessment of candidate strength, polling trends, and national environment factors heading into November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,425Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Michigan leads trader consensus among Democratic tossup Senate opportunities due to its position as a premier battleground with an open seat following Gary Peters’ retirement.** Recent polling shows the matchup between Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remaining close after El-Sayed’s narrow August primary victory, reflecting the state’s narrow 2024 presidential margin and established Democratic infrastructure. Maine follows because of Susan Collins’ long tenure in a state Kamala Harris carried, though Democratic nominee Troy Jackson faces consolidation challenges after an earlier primary shift. Alaska ranks next with Mary Peltola’s proven statewide appeal against Dan Sullivan under ranked-choice voting, bolstered by her strong primary performance. Iowa, Texas, and Ohio trail amid open or special-election dynamics and recent raters’ upgrades to tossup status, driven by candidates like James Talarico and Sherrod Brown showing competitiveness in polling, yet facing steeper structural headwinds in red-leaning states. These probabilities capture traders’ assessment of candidate strength, polling trends, and national environment factors heading into November.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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