Recent polls show a tightening race between incumbent Elmano de Freitas (PT) and Ciro Gomes (PSDB) ahead of the October 4 first-round vote, with most late-September surveys placing the candidates within the margin of error after Ciro held larger leads earlier in the month. Elmano has gained ground through incumbency advantages, strong municipal support, and alignment with President Lula, while Ciro draws on prior gubernatorial experience and backing from center-right parties including the PL. Minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, Roberto Cláudio, and Camilo Santana register negligible support and do not factor materially into outcomes. Trader pricing reflects this closely contested dynamic, with uncertainty over whether the contest resolves in the first round or advances to a runoff.