Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability for Ceará governor, driven by his consistent first-round leads in late April polls—41% in Genial/Quaest and 54% in Instituto Veritá—over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Ciro's May 11 confirmation to forgo a presidential run and focus on the state race, with a pre-candidacy launch set for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a seasoned challenger against the PT administration. Elmano holds second at 22.5% amid PT debates over nominating him or Camilo Santana, who polls stronger in simulated runoffs but weakly at 4-9% first-round. Right-wing fragmentation keeps Eduardo Girão (7%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) marginal ahead of the October 4 first round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
Camilo Santana 6.1%
Eduardo Girão 3.6%
$53,172 Wol.
$53,172 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
64%
Elmano de Freitas
22%
Camilo Santana
9%
Eduardo Girão
7%
Roberto Cláudio
2%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Ciro Gomes 64%
Elmano de Freitas 22%
Camilo Santana 6.1%
Eduardo Girão 3.6%
$53,172 Wol.
$53,172 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ciro Gomes
$35,966 Wol.
64%
Elmano de Freitas
$5,656 Wol.
22%
Camilo Santana
$2,887 Wol.
9%
Eduardo Girão
$3,074 Wol.
7%
Roberto Cláudio
$1,784 Wol.
2%
Capitão Wagner
$3,805 Wol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability for Ceará governor, driven by his consistent first-round leads in late April polls—41% in Genial/Quaest and 54% in Instituto Veritá—over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Ciro's May 11 confirmation to forgo a presidential run and focus on the state race, with a pre-candidacy launch set for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a seasoned challenger against the PT administration. Elmano holds second at 22.5% amid PT debates over nominating him or Camilo Santana, who polls stronger in simulated runoffs but weakly at 4-9% first-round. Right-wing fragmentation keeps Eduardo Girão (7%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) marginal ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Wolumen
$53,172Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability for Ceará governor, driven by his consistent first-round leads in late April polls—41% in Genial/Quaest and 54% in Instituto Veritá—over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Ciro's May 11 confirmation to forgo a presidential run and focus on the state race, with a pre-candidacy launch set for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a seasoned challenger against the PT administration. Elmano holds second at 22.5% amid PT debates over nominating him or Camilo Santana, who polls stronger in simulated runoffs but weakly at 4-9% first-round. Right-wing fragmentation keeps Eduardo Girão (7%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) marginal ahead of the October 4 first round.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$53,172Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Ciro Gomes at 63.5% implied probability for Ceará governor, driven by his consistent first-round leads in late April polls—41% in Genial/Quaest and 54% in Instituto Veritá—over incumbent Elmano de Freitas (32-35%). Ciro's May 11 confirmation to forgo a presidential run and focus on the state race, with a pre-candidacy launch set for May 16, has solidified his frontrunner status as a seasoned challenger against the PT administration. Elmano holds second at 22.5% amid PT debates over nominating him or Camilo Santana, who polls stronger in simulated runoffs but weakly at 4-9% first-round. Right-wing fragmentation keeps Eduardo Girão (7%), Roberto Cláudio (2.1%), and Capitão Wagner (0.3%) marginal ahead of the October 4 first round.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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