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Świat·Wybory Globalne

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Świat·Wybory Globalne

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5% 31%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%

Polymarket

$231,585 Wol.

Lula da Silva <5% 31%

Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 16%

Lula da Silva 10-15% 7.8%

Polymarket

$231,585 Wol.

icon for Lula da Silva 15%+

Lula da Silva 15%+

$4,601 Wol.

3%

icon for Lula da Silva 10-15%

Lula da Silva 10-15%

$2,627 Wol.

8%

icon for Lula da Silva 5-10%

Lula da Silva 5-10%

$6,808 Wol.

18%

icon for Lula da Silva <5%

Lula da Silva <5%

$2,923 Wol.

32%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+

$1,984 Wol.

2%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%

$2,309 Wol.

6%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

Flávio Bolsonaro <5%

$4,026 Wol.

16%

icon for Renan Santos Victory

Renan Santos Victory

$200,567 Wol.

5%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

Tarcisio de Freitas Victory

$1,707 Wol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior Victory

Ratinho Júnior Victory

$1,774 Wol.

1%

icon for Other

Other

$2,258 Wol.

21%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$231,585
Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or separated by just a few points in first-round scenarios, with Lula typically at 38-40 percent and Bolsonaro at 33-37 percent amid a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This positioning favors narrow victory margins under 10 percent for the top candidate, as the polarized electorate, economic pressures, and Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement of his son sustain a competitive race ahead of the October 4 vote. A film-funding controversy involving Flávio Bolsonaro has drawn recent scrutiny without yet altering the overall polling trajectory, while trader consensus reflects the historical volatility of Brazilian first-round outcomes and the potential for late endorsements or economic data to narrow or widen the gap further.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$231,585
Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Często zadawane pytania

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 11 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Lula da Silva <5%" z 32%, za nim "Other" z 21%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 32¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 32% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" wygenerował $231.6K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Feb 11, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory", przeglądaj 11 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" jest "Lula da Silva <5%" z 32%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 32% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Other" z 21%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.