Recent polling from mid-September shows President Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round scenarios, with margins typically between 0.6 and 3 percentage points across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other aggregators. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, keeping attention on the exact gap between the top two on October 4. Trader pricing on sub-5% victories for either frontrunner aligns with this tightening contest and historical patterns of close Brazilian first rounds when the field fragments among smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Ongoing campaign events, including scheduled debates and stable approval ratings near 48-50%, have sustained the competitive positioning without major shifts in the past week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 55%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23.5%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 11%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.9%
$503,162 Wol.
$503,162 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
<1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
11%
Lula da Silva <5%
55%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
24%
Renan Santos Victory
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
<1%
Other
<1%
Lula da Silva <5% 55%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23.5%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 11%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.9%
$503,162 Wol.
$503,162 Wol.
Oct 3, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$20,711 Wol.
<1%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$48,017 Wol.
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$49,244 Wol.
11%
Lula da Silva <5%
$47,701 Wol.
55%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$28,038 Wol.
1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$26,202 Wol.
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$34,000 Wol.
24%
Renan Santos Victory
$218,602 Wol.
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$10,319 Wol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$9,641 Wol.
<1%
Other
$10,686 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows President Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round scenarios, with margins typically between 0.6 and 3 percentage points across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other aggregators. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, keeping attention on the exact gap between the top two on October 4. Trader pricing on sub-5% victories for either frontrunner aligns with this tightening contest and historical patterns of close Brazilian first rounds when the field fragments among smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Ongoing campaign events, including scheduled debates and stable approval ratings near 48-50%, have sustained the competitive positioning without major shifts in the past week.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$503,162Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September shows President Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round scenarios, with margins typically between 0.6 and 3 percentage points across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other aggregators. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, keeping attention on the exact gap between the top two on October 4. Trader pricing on sub-5% victories for either frontrunner aligns with this tightening contest and historical patterns of close Brazilian first rounds when the field fragments among smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Ongoing campaign events, including scheduled debates and stable approval ratings near 48-50%, have sustained the competitive positioning without major shifts in the past week.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$503,162Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from mid-September shows President Lula da Silva holding a narrow lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round scenarios, with margins typically between 0.6 and 3 percentage points across Datafolha, AtlasIntel, and other aggregators. No candidate approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25, keeping attention on the exact gap between the top two on October 4. Trader pricing on sub-5% victories for either frontrunner aligns with this tightening contest and historical patterns of close Brazilian first rounds when the field fragments among smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Ongoing campaign events, including scheduled debates and stable approval ratings near 48-50%, have sustained the competitive positioning without major shifts in the past week.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
87%
Will Lula win between 41% and 44% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
43%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
37%
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