Recent polls underscore the tight Bahia governor race ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round, with Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.8% against incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues' (PT) 38.7% in stimulated voting intentions, following a Quaest tie (41%-37%) in late April. Trader consensus tilts slightly to Rodrigues at 52% implied probability, reflecting his 54% approval rating and PT's long dominance in the state despite public security concerns boosting Neto's appeal from his Salvador mayor tenure. Separation could come from fresh polling averages, campaign endorsements, or national political shifts, as undecided voters (around 11-14%) hold the balance in a likely runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Wol.
$13,694 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
52%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 52%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
João Roma <1%
$13,694 Wol.
$13,694 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$3,666 Wol.
52%
ACM Neto
$3,660 Wol.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$1,281 Wol.
<1%
João Roma
$966 Wol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$1,060 Wol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$1,938 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$1,124 Wol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls underscore the tight Bahia governor race ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round, with Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.8% against incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues' (PT) 38.7% in stimulated voting intentions, following a Quaest tie (41%-37%) in late April. Trader consensus tilts slightly to Rodrigues at 52% implied probability, reflecting his 54% approval rating and PT's long dominance in the state despite public security concerns boosting Neto's appeal from his Salvador mayor tenure. Separation could come from fresh polling averages, campaign endorsements, or national political shifts, as undecided voters (around 11-14%) hold the balance in a likely runoff.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$13,694Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls underscore the tight Bahia governor race ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round, with Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.8% against incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues' (PT) 38.7% in stimulated voting intentions, following a Quaest tie (41%-37%) in late April. Trader consensus tilts slightly to Rodrigues at 52% implied probability, reflecting his 54% approval rating and PT's long dominance in the state despite public security concerns boosting Neto's appeal from his Salvador mayor tenure. Separation could come from fresh polling averages, campaign endorsements, or national political shifts, as undecided voters (around 11-14%) hold the balance in a likely runoff.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$13,694Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls underscore the tight Bahia governor race ahead of the October 4, 2026, first round, with Paraná Pesquisas (May 10-12) showing challenger ACM Neto (União Brasil) at 47.8% against incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues' (PT) 38.7% in stimulated voting intentions, following a Quaest tie (41%-37%) in late April. Trader consensus tilts slightly to Rodrigues at 52% implied probability, reflecting his 54% approval rating and PT's long dominance in the state despite public security concerns boosting Neto's appeal from his Salvador mayor tenure. Separation could come from fresh polling averages, campaign endorsements, or national political shifts, as undecided voters (around 11-14%) hold the balance in a likely runoff.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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