Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 49.5% edge in trader pricing over ACM Neto of União Brasil at 47.5%, reflecting a rematch that remains tightly contested into mid-2026. Recent Quaest polling showed the candidates in a statistical tie around 41-37%, while Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized near 56-61% amid steady marks on education and infrastructure. The race has tightened after early advantages for Neto narrowed with the incumbent’s recovery and shifts in municipal support. The August 9 debate on Band Bahia marked the first major head-to-head exchange, though its impact on voter intention remains unclear. Key variables include ongoing polling trends, Bahia’s economic conditions, and national alignments as Neto backs the right-wing bloc.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoJerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Wol.
$107,708 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
50%
ACM Neto
47%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 47%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 Wol.
$107,708 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,629 Wol.
50%
ACM Neto
$35,900 Wol.
47%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 Wol.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 Wol.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 Wol.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 Wol.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 49.5% edge in trader pricing over ACM Neto of União Brasil at 47.5%, reflecting a rematch that remains tightly contested into mid-2026. Recent Quaest polling showed the candidates in a statistical tie around 41-37%, while Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized near 56-61% amid steady marks on education and infrastructure. The race has tightened after early advantages for Neto narrowed with the incumbent’s recovery and shifts in municipal support. The August 9 debate on Band Bahia marked the first major head-to-head exchange, though its impact on voter intention remains unclear. Key variables include ongoing polling trends, Bahia’s economic conditions, and national alignments as Neto backs the right-wing bloc.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rynek otwarty: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$107,708Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 49.5% edge in trader pricing over ACM Neto of União Brasil at 47.5%, reflecting a rematch that remains tightly contested into mid-2026. Recent Quaest polling showed the candidates in a statistical tie around 41-37%, while Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized near 56-61% amid steady marks on education and infrastructure. The race has tightened after early advantages for Neto narrowed with the incumbent’s recovery and shifts in municipal support. The August 9 debate on Band Bahia marked the first major head-to-head exchange, though its impact on voter intention remains unclear. Key variables include ongoing polling trends, Bahia’s economic conditions, and national alignments as Neto backs the right-wing bloc.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Wolumen
$107,708Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues of the PT holds a narrow 49.5% edge in trader pricing over ACM Neto of União Brasil at 47.5%, reflecting a rematch that remains tightly contested into mid-2026. Recent Quaest polling showed the candidates in a statistical tie around 41-37%, while Rodrigues’s approval ratings have stabilized near 56-61% amid steady marks on education and infrastructure. The race has tightened after early advantages for Neto narrowed with the incumbent’s recovery and shifts in municipal support. The August 9 debate on Band Bahia marked the first major head-to-head exchange, though its impact on voter intention remains unclear. Key variables include ongoing polling trends, Bahia’s economic conditions, and national alignments as Neto backs the right-wing bloc.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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