Trader consensus around a 96.5% probability that Donald Trump will not be removed via the 25th Amendment before 2027 reflects the amendment’s high procedural thresholds and current political alignments. Invocation under Section 4 requires Vice President JD Vance and a Cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by a two-thirds vote in both chambers of Congress if contested—barriers that have never succeeded involuntarily. Trump’s hand-picked officials and Republican congressional majorities have shown consistent support for his leadership through mid-2026, despite isolated Democratic calls tied to foreign policy statements and occasional public observations about age-related fatigue. Historical patterns of presidential continuity and the absence of verified medical incapacity further anchor expectations. Late developments such as a sudden documented health crisis or unprecedented Cabinet defections could theoretically alter trajectories, though no such conditions have materialized.