Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, and his easy primary win. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has raised substantial funds and narrowed the gap in some polls to within a few points, yet historical precedent—no Democratic Senate victory since 1939—keeps trader consensus favoring Marshall. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair highlighted differences on agriculture, immigration, and Trump policies, with Hamilton pressing attacks while facing a vocal audience. Most forecasting models rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with market-implied probabilities around 80 percent for Marshall.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoKansas Senate Election Winner
Kansas Senate Election Winner
$50,659 Wol.
$50,659 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
80%
Adam Hamilton (D)
21%
$50,659 Wol.
$50,659 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Roger Marshall (R)
$32,667 Wol.
80%
Adam Hamilton (D)
$17,992 Wol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, and his easy primary win. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has raised substantial funds and narrowed the gap in some polls to within a few points, yet historical precedent—no Democratic Senate victory since 1939—keeps trader consensus favoring Marshall. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair highlighted differences on agriculture, immigration, and Trump policies, with Hamilton pressing attacks while facing a vocal audience. Most forecasting models rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with market-implied probabilities around 80 percent for Marshall.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$50,659Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, and his easy primary win. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has raised substantial funds and narrowed the gap in some polls to within a few points, yet historical precedent—no Democratic Senate victory since 1939—keeps trader consensus favoring Marshall. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair highlighted differences on agriculture, immigration, and Trump policies, with Hamilton pressing attacks while facing a vocal audience. Most forecasting models rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with market-implied probabilities around 80 percent for Marshall.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$50,659Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Roger Marshall holds a strong position in the 2026 Kansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican voting patterns, including Donald Trump's 16-point margin in 2024, and his easy primary win. Democrat Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor who won a crowded August primary, has raised substantial funds and narrowed the gap in some polls to within a few points, yet historical precedent—no Democratic Senate victory since 1939—keeps trader consensus favoring Marshall. A September 13 debate at the Kansas State Fair highlighted differences on agriculture, immigration, and Trump policies, with Hamilton pressing attacks while facing a vocal audience. Most forecasting models rate the contest Likely Republican, aligning with market-implied probabilities around 80 percent for Marshall.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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