**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 68% as the first regidor on the Renovación Popular list, with Carlos Bruce at 24% and all other named candidates below 3%.** The October 4, 2026, municipal election features a fragmented field of over 20 candidates. Recent IEP polling (September 4–10) shows López Aliaga’s list ahead at 20.1% versus Bruce at 17.1%, with the rest far behind, consistent with his prior term as mayor and the party’s 2022 district-level strength. Legal rulings by the JNE in early September confirmed his regidor candidacy despite prior challenges tied to his senator-elect status, clarifying the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails under municipal succession rules. Traders price the combination of name recognition, polling edge, and procedural clarity as the dominant factor heading into the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoRafael López Aliaga 68.0%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 24.3%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,282 Wol.
$148,282 Wol.
Rafael López Aliaga
68%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
24%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
Rafael López Aliaga 68.0%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca 24.3%
Francis James Allison Oyague 2.6%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera 2.4%
$148,282 Wol.
$148,282 Wol.
Rafael López Aliaga
68%
Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca
24%
Francis James Allison Oyague
3%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Samuel Marcos Daza Taype
1%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo
<1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo
<1%
Yehude Simón Munaro
<1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León
<1%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino
<1%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero
<1%
Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar
<1%
Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
Samir Frank Quispe Caballero
<1%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral market at 68% as the first regidor on the Renovación Popular list, with Carlos Bruce at 24% and all other named candidates below 3%.** The October 4, 2026, municipal election features a fragmented field of over 20 candidates. Recent IEP polling (September 4–10) shows López Aliaga’s list ahead at 20.1% versus Bruce at 17.1%, with the rest far behind, consistent with his prior term as mayor and the party’s 2022 district-level strength. Legal rulings by the JNE in early September confirmed his regidor candidacy despite prior challenges tied to his senator-elect status, clarifying the path for him to assume the mayoralty if the list prevails under municipal succession rules. Traders price the combination of name recognition, polling edge, and procedural clarity as the dominant factor heading into the final weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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