The 2026 Lima municipal election produced a narrow plurality for the Renovación Popular list associated with Rafael López Aliaga at roughly 28 percent, just ahead of Avanza País with Francis Allison near 27 percent and Somos Perú with Carlos Bruce around 15 percent. Trader pricing remains subdued across all named candidates because Peruvian law prohibits immediate mayoral re-election, and López Aliaga previously held the office before resigning. Ongoing review of disputed tally sheets and JNE rulings on list succession and eligibility continue to determine final certification. Any shift in court outcomes or official proclamation could alter implied probabilities before the market resolves.