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icon for Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
Polityka·Szwecja

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

icon for Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?
Polityka·Szwecja

Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?

S + MP + C 21%

S + MP 14%

M + KD + L + SD 13%

Other 13%

Polymarket
NOWE

S + MP + C 21%

S + MP 14%

M + KD + L + SD 13%

Other 13%

Polymarket
NOWE

S + MP + C

$66 Wol.

21%

S + MP

$149 Wol.

9%

M + KD + L + SD

$66 Wol.

13%

Other

$33 Wol.

13%

S + MP + C + V

$185 Wol.

12%

S + MP + V

$63 Wol.

12%

M + KD + L + C

$33 Wol.

10%

S + M

$43 Wol.

9%

S + MP + C + L

$43 Wol.

8%

M + SD

$43 Wol.

8%

M + KD + L

$43 Wol.

8%

S + C

$63 Wol.

8%

S

$43 Wol.

7%

S + C + V

$43 Wol.

7%

S + MP + C + KD

$33 Wol.

7%

S + C + L

$43 Wol.

6%

M + KD + SD

$43 Wol.

6%

M + KD

$43 Wol.

6%

M

$146 Wol.

4%

S + MP + L

$43 Wol.

3%

S + V

$116 Wol.

2%

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden’s September 13 election produced a razor-thin centre-left lead of roughly 176 seats to 173 for the outgoing right-wing bloc, leaving both sides short of stable majorities and prompting immediate coalition talks. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats must navigate Centre Party resistance to the Left Party while the Moderates-led side weighs Sweden Democrats’ diminished performance against potential overtures to the Centre or Liberals. These arithmetic and compatibility constraints explain the market’s dispersion across numerous low-probability combinations rather than any single frontrunner. Final overseas votes and the speaker’s September 29 prime-minister proposal could still shift the balance before parliament convenes on 28 September.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Wolumen
$1,386
Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Sweden’s September 13 election produced a razor-thin centre-left lead of roughly 176 seats to 173 for the outgoing right-wing bloc, leaving both sides short of stable majorities and prompting immediate coalition talks. Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats must navigate Centre Party resistance to the Left Party while the Moderates-led side weighs Sweden Democrats’ diminished performance against potential overtures to the Centre or Liberals. These arithmetic and compatibility constraints explain the market’s dispersion across numerous low-probability combinations rather than any single frontrunner. Final overseas votes and the speaker’s September 29 prime-minister proposal could still shift the balance before parliament convenes on 28 September.

Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered.

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.

For example:

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”.

- If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition.

In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.

If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition.

If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government.

If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Wolumen
$1,386
Data zakończenia
Aug 1, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 10:50 AM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x69c47De9D...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 21 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "S + MP + C" z 21%, za nim "M + KD + L + SD" z 13%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 21¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 21% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Sep 14, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?", przeglądaj 21 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?" jest "S + MP + C" z 21%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 21% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "M + KD + L + SD" z 13%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Which coalition will form the next Swedish government?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.