National’s commanding 98.3% market position reflects preliminary November 7 results that gave the incumbent National–ACT–NZ First bloc 67 seats in the expanded 131-seat Parliament—exactly one above the 66-seat majority threshold—while Labour’s left-leaning grouping reached only 57. National secured 42 electorate seats despite trailing Labour slightly on the party vote (29.2% to 29.4%), creating overhang that preserved the right bloc’s narrow edge. Traders assign low probability to a reversal because roughly 400,000 special votes remain to be counted before official results on November 27, and historical patterns show limited net movement sufficient to hand the left a workable majority. The centrist Opportunity Party’s seven seats add further complexity but appear more likely to support continuity than to enable an alternative arrangement.