The November 7, 2026, New Zealand general election produced preliminary results showing the National Party with 42 seats in the expanded 131-seat Parliament, ahead of Labour’s 36, due to strong electorate wins that created an overhang under the MMP system. This gave the incumbent National-ACT-New Zealand First bloc 67 seats, one above the majority threshold. Traders assign National a 98.6% probability of emerging as the election winner because its electorate-seat advantage and coalition arithmetic have proven resilient in past cycles, even as roughly 400,000 special votes remain to be counted before official results on November 27. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include larger-than-expected special-vote swings that erode National’s plurality or prevent the right-leaning bloc from securing 66 seats, though historical patterns suggest such reversals are limited.