Geopolitical uncertainties from the Israel-Iran conflict continue to weigh on Bank of Israel policymakers, balancing inflation risks from elevated energy prices against a growth outlook that supports gradual easing toward the 1-3 percent target range. With the benchmark rate held at 4 percent since the March decision and inflation expectations anchored near the midpoint, traders assign roughly even odds to no change versus a modest cut at the July 6 meeting. Recent stabilization in the shekel and labor market tightness reinforce caution, while any further de-escalation or softer CPI prints could tilt sentiment toward easing. The tight pricing reflects the Monetary Committee's data-dependent approach amid these competing pressures.