Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 27-28 policy meeting, including a 6-3 board split and sharply upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.5-3.0 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, have positioned a 25 basis point hike to 1.00 percent as the dominant outcome with 79.7 percent market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the central bank’s emphasis on sustaining the wages-prices virtuous cycle and addressing upside risks from oil prices and yen weakness, as reinforced by board member comments favoring an imminent increase. No-change odds at 19.5 percent incorporate modest growth downgrades to 0.5 percent and geopolitical uncertainties, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2 percent combined. The June 15-16 meeting serves as the key catalyst, with May inflation data and yen movements likely to influence final positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBank of Japan Decision in June?
Bank of Japan Decision in June?
25 bps increase 79.7%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
Decrease rates <1%
$115,997 Wol.
$115,997 Wol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
1%
No change
16%
25 bps increase
80%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps increase 79.7%
No change 16%
50+ bps increase 1.1%
Decrease rates <1%
$115,997 Wol.
$115,997 Wol.
Jun 16, 2026
Decrease rates
$34,150 Wol.
1%
No change
$29,879 Wol.
16%
25 bps increase
$27,596 Wol.
80%
50+ bps increase
$24,372 Wol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 27-28 policy meeting, including a 6-3 board split and sharply upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.5-3.0 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, have positioned a 25 basis point hike to 1.00 percent as the dominant outcome with 79.7 percent market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the central bank’s emphasis on sustaining the wages-prices virtuous cycle and addressing upside risks from oil prices and yen weakness, as reinforced by board member comments favoring an imminent increase. No-change odds at 19.5 percent incorporate modest growth downgrades to 0.5 percent and geopolitical uncertainties, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2 percent combined. The June 15-16 meeting serves as the key catalyst, with May inflation data and yen movements likely to influence final positioning.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$115,997Data zakończenia
Jun 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 27-28 policy meeting, including a 6-3 board split and sharply upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.5-3.0 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, have positioned a 25 basis point hike to 1.00 percent as the dominant outcome with 79.7 percent market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the central bank’s emphasis on sustaining the wages-prices virtuous cycle and addressing upside risks from oil prices and yen weakness, as reinforced by board member comments favoring an imminent increase. No-change odds at 19.5 percent incorporate modest growth downgrades to 0.5 percent and geopolitical uncertainties, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2 percent combined. The June 15-16 meeting serves as the key catalyst, with May inflation data and yen movements likely to influence final positioning.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$115,997Data zakończenia
Jun 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan’s April 27-28 policy meeting, including a 6-3 board split and sharply upgraded fiscal 2026 core inflation forecasts to 2.5-3.0 percent amid Middle East energy shocks, have positioned a 25 basis point hike to 1.00 percent as the dominant outcome with 79.7 percent market-implied probability. Trader consensus reflects the central bank’s emphasis on sustaining the wages-prices virtuous cycle and addressing upside risks from oil prices and yen weakness, as reinforced by board member comments favoring an imminent increase. No-change odds at 19.5 percent incorporate modest growth downgrades to 0.5 percent and geopolitical uncertainties, while larger hikes or cuts remain negligible at under 2 percent combined. The June 15-16 meeting serves as the key catalyst, with May inflation data and yen movements likely to influence final positioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania