Finland's commanding 67.5% implied probability as frontrunner to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final reflects trader consensus on Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's powerhouse staging and vocal prowess in recent jury rehearsals, where they topped scores ahead of Sweden, cementing their edge in Vienna's hybrid jury-televote format. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.5% via a late surge in dress rehearsals and press polls, topping fan previews with "Ferto's" infectious energy, while Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan hit 13.5% after a flawless run-through that echoed past strong Israeli qualifiers. Croatia's LELEK holds 5.9% on "Andromeda's" solid buzz, but lower rehearsal rankings cap others like Moldova. With the semi-final freshly past and televote data driving final tallies, upset potential lingers from diaspora voting blocs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Finland 68%
Greece 15%
Israel 14%
Croatia 5.9%
$207,347 Wol.
$207,347 Wol.
May 12, 2026
Finland
68%
Greece
15%
Israel
14%
Croatia
6%
Moldova
2%
Poland
<1%
Sweden
<1%
Serbia
<1%
Lithuania
<1%
Belgium
<1%
Finland 68%
Greece 15%
Israel 14%
Croatia 5.9%
$207,347 Wol.
$207,347 Wol.
May 12, 2026
Finland
$26,401 Wol.
68%
Greece
$19,251 Wol.
15%
Israel
$13,027 Wol.
14%
Croatia
$22,467 Wol.
6%
Moldova
$24,941 Wol.
2%
Poland
$14,890 Wol.
<1%
Sweden
$14,183 Wol.
<1%
Serbia
$10,985 Wol.
<1%
Lithuania
$13,757 Wol.
<1%
Belgium
$7,799 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's commanding 67.5% implied probability as frontrunner to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final reflects trader consensus on Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's powerhouse staging and vocal prowess in recent jury rehearsals, where they topped scores ahead of Sweden, cementing their edge in Vienna's hybrid jury-televote format. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.5% via a late surge in dress rehearsals and press polls, topping fan previews with "Ferto's" infectious energy, while Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan hit 13.5% after a flawless run-through that echoed past strong Israeli qualifiers. Croatia's LELEK holds 5.9% on "Andromeda's" solid buzz, but lower rehearsal rankings cap others like Moldova. With the semi-final freshly past and televote data driving final tallies, upset potential lingers from diaspora voting blocs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ET
Wolumen
$207,347Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Finland's commanding 67.5% implied probability as frontrunner to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final reflects trader consensus on Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's powerhouse staging and vocal prowess in recent jury rehearsals, where they topped scores ahead of Sweden, cementing their edge in Vienna's hybrid jury-televote format. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.5% via a late surge in dress rehearsals and press polls, topping fan previews with "Ferto's" infectious energy, while Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan hit 13.5% after a flawless run-through that echoed past strong Israeli qualifiers. Croatia's LELEK holds 5.9% on "Andromeda's" solid buzz, but lower rehearsal rankings cap others like Moldova. With the semi-final freshly past and televote data driving final tallies, upset potential lingers from diaspora voting blocs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Wolumen
$207,347Data zakończenia
May 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 7, 2026, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Finland's commanding 67.5% implied probability as frontrunner to win Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final reflects trader consensus on Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's powerhouse staging and vocal prowess in recent jury rehearsals, where they topped scores ahead of Sweden, cementing their edge in Vienna's hybrid jury-televote format. Greece's Akylas vaulted to 14.5% via a late surge in dress rehearsals and press polls, topping fan previews with "Ferto's" infectious energy, while Israel's Michelle Noam Bettan hit 13.5% after a flawless run-through that echoed past strong Israeli qualifiers. Croatia's LELEK holds 5.9% on "Andromeda's" solid buzz, but lower rehearsal rankings cap others like Moldova. With the semi-final freshly past and televote data driving final tallies, upset potential lingers from diaspora voting blocs.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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