Seasonal patterns drive the strong market consensus around an 85–90 flu hospitalization rate for Week 23, as early June falls well outside the typical U.S. influenza season when transmission and severe outcomes plummet. CDC surveillance data historically show weekly rates near seasonal baselines by late spring, with sharp declines after March peaks and negligible activity through summer months. Current model consensus and recent case trends reinforce this positioning, reflecting the established epidemiological cycle rather than unusual early-summer circulation. Resolution depends on final CDC-confirmed rates meeting precise thresholds; any unexpected late-season surge or reporting anomaly could shift the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on long-term observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 23, 2026?
85–90 94.0%
90–95 3.7%
<80 <1%
95–100 <1%
<80
1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
94%
90–95
4%
95–100
1%
100+
<1%
85–90 94.0%
90–95 3.7%
<80 <1%
95–100 <1%
<80
1%
80–85
<1%
85–90
94%
90–95
4%
95–100
1%
100+
<1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 12, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Seasonal patterns drive the strong market consensus around an 85–90 flu hospitalization rate for Week 23, as early June falls well outside the typical U.S. influenza season when transmission and severe outcomes plummet. CDC surveillance data historically show weekly rates near seasonal baselines by late spring, with sharp declines after March peaks and negligible activity through summer months. Current model consensus and recent case trends reinforce this positioning, reflecting the established epidemiological cycle rather than unusual early-summer circulation. Resolution depends on final CDC-confirmed rates meeting precise thresholds; any unexpected late-season surge or reporting anomaly could shift the outcome, though such scenarios remain low-probability based on long-term observations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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