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Polityka·Francuski

France United Left Primary Winner

icon for France United Left Primary Winner
Polityka·Francuski

France United Left Primary Winner

Canceled 56%

Marine Tondelier 29%

François Ruffin 11%

Benjamin Lucas-Lundy 1.1%

Polymarket

$51,281 Wol.

Canceled 56%

Marine Tondelier 29%

François Ruffin 11%

Benjamin Lucas-Lundy 1.1%

Polymarket

$51,281 Wol.

icon for Canceled

Canceled

$8,277 Wol.

56%

icon for Marine Tondelier

Marine Tondelier

$26,498 Wol.

29%

icon for François Ruffin

François Ruffin

$11,098 Wol.

11%

icon for Benjamin Lucas-Lundy

Benjamin Lucas-Lundy

$67 Wol.

1%

icon for Lydie Massard

Lydie Massard

$1,464 Wol.

<1%

icon for Clémentine Autain

Clémentine Autain

$3,877 Wol.

<1%

The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The elevated probability assigned to cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary reflects deepening fractures among participating groups, including persistent Socialist Party hesitations over full involvement, refusals from figures such as Raphaël Glucksmann, and the exclusion of La France Insoumise. Recent municipal election results in March 2026 exposed these coalition strains, with Socialists securing major cities while avoiding broad alliances that might have strengthened the primary process. Marine Tondelier holds the leading position among declared candidates as national secretary of Les Écologistes, yet trader sentiment prices the field collectively ahead of her amid stalled negotiations. François Ruffin’s May 12 announcement of an independent presidential bid has further reinforced expectations of no unified vote occurring.

The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.

This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.

If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$51,281
Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The elevated probability assigned to cancellation for the October 2026 United Left primary reflects deepening fractures among participating groups, including persistent Socialist Party hesitations over full involvement, refusals from figures such as Raphaël Glucksmann, and the exclusion of La France Insoumise. Recent municipal election results in March 2026 exposed these coalition strains, with Socialists securing major cities while avoiding broad alliances that might have strengthened the primary process. Marine Tondelier holds the leading position among declared candidates as national secretary of Les Écologistes, yet trader sentiment prices the field collectively ahead of her amid stalled negotiations. François Ruffin’s May 12 announcement of an independent presidential bid has further reinforced expectations of no unified vote occurring.

The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.

This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.

If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$51,281
Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election. This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify. If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Często zadawane pytania

"France United Left Primary Winner" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 6 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Canceled" z 56%, za nim "Marine Tondelier" z 28%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 56¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 56% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "France United Left Primary Winner" wygenerował $51.3K łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku May 5, 2026. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "France United Left Primary Winner", przeglądaj 6 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "France United Left Primary Winner" jest "Canceled" z 56%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 56% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Marine Tondelier" z 28%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "France United Left Primary Winner" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.