**Trader consensus heavily favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 92.2 percent.** The proposed October 11 primary, intended to select a joint candidate for the 2027 presidential election among L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout!, faces major barriers from non-participation by the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique. Socialist internal divisions, including debates over alliances and a preference for their own closed primary process, have prevented the broad coalition needed for the event to proceed. Market resolution triggers on official cancellation announcements or withdrawal by at least three participating groups. Late reversals remain possible if Socialist leadership resolves its splits and endorses participation before October, though recent statements indicate continued fragmentation that sustains the high implied probability of cancellation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanceled 92.2%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,736 Wol.
$202,736 Wol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
92%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Canceled 92.2%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,736 Wol.
$202,736 Wol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
$67,262 Wol.
92%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Wol.
1%
Marine Tondelier
$49,561 Wol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,357 Wol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Wol.
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus heavily favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 92.2 percent.** The proposed October 11 primary, intended to select a joint candidate for the 2027 presidential election among L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout!, faces major barriers from non-participation by the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique. Socialist internal divisions, including debates over alliances and a preference for their own closed primary process, have prevented the broad coalition needed for the event to proceed. Market resolution triggers on official cancellation announcements or withdrawal by at least three participating groups. Late reversals remain possible if Socialist leadership resolves its splits and endorses participation before October, though recent statements indicate continued fragmentation that sustains the high implied probability of cancellation.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$202,736Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.**Trader consensus heavily favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 92.2 percent.** The proposed October 11 primary, intended to select a joint candidate for the 2027 presidential election among L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout!, faces major barriers from non-participation by the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique. Socialist internal divisions, including debates over alliances and a preference for their own closed primary process, have prevented the broad coalition needed for the event to proceed. Market resolution triggers on official cancellation announcements or withdrawal by at least three participating groups. Late reversals remain possible if Socialist leadership resolves its splits and endorses participation before October, though recent statements indicate continued fragmentation that sustains the high implied probability of cancellation.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$202,736Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary at 92.2 percent.** The proposed October 11 primary, intended to select a joint candidate for the 2027 presidential election among L'Après, Les Écologistes, and Debout!, faces major barriers from non-participation by the Socialist Party, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique. Socialist internal divisions, including debates over alliances and a preference for their own closed primary process, have prevented the broad coalition needed for the event to proceed. Market resolution triggers on official cancellation announcements or withdrawal by at least three participating groups. Late reversals remain possible if Socialist leadership resolves its splits and endorses participation before October, though recent statements indicate continued fragmentation that sustains the high implied probability of cancellation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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