Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanceled 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 10%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy 1.1%
$51,595 Wol.
$51,595 Wol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
57%
Marine Tondelier
29%
François Ruffin
10%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Canceled 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 10%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy 1.1%
$51,595 Wol.
$51,595 Wol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
$8,298 Wol.
57%
Marine Tondelier
$26,582 Wol.
29%
François Ruffin
$11,243 Wol.
10%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$117 Wol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$1,474 Wol.
<1%
Clémentine Autain
$3,882 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$51,595Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$51,595Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Socialist Party fractures have elevated cancellation odds, as the May 8 resignation of parliamentary leader Boris Vallaud and allied officials signals deepening internal divisions that make PS participation in the October 11 primary improbable. This development, following March municipal election alliance strains, has shifted trader consensus toward a 57.5% implied probability of cancellation, given the primary's reliance on broader left coordination among confirmed participants like Les Écologistes. Marine Tondelier maintains 28.5% support as the strongest remaining contender from the green-aligned bloc, while François Ruffin trails at 9.0% amid limited backing from smaller parties. The market prices reflect procedural barriers and unresolved coalition negotiations ahead of the 2027 presidential contest.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania