Gyanesh Kumar’s term as Chief Election Commissioner runs until January 26, 2029, and constitutional removal requires parliamentary impeachment on proven misbehavior, a high threshold that has blocked earlier opposition notices. Recent weeks have seen intensified protests over the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls and internal commission dissent reports, alongside Supreme Court notices on decision-making processes and new impeachment filings by parties including the TMC. These developments have sustained opposition pressure but produced no legislative or executive action capable of forcing an exit before year-end. Traders therefore assign a 75.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the procedural barriers, ruling-party parliamentary strength, and absence of any fast-track mechanism that would alter the status quo by December 31.