Recent forecasts for Chengdu on October 3 indicate daytime highs most likely between 23–26°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered around those thresholds. Multiple models show overcast skies or patchy rain developing, which limits solar heating and caps peak temperatures, while light winds and moderate humidity further moderate conditions. Historical early-October averages near 22–23°C provide context, yet current guidance from sources like AccuWeather and local forecasts points slightly higher absent widespread precipitation. Model consensus remains tight but sensitive to exact rainfall timing and cloud persistence, with any clearing potentially allowing brief spikes toward 27°C or cooling below 23°C if heavier showers materialize. Updated runs from the China Meteorological Administration or NCEP will be key ahead of market resolution.