The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$388,693 Wol.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,693 Wol.
5.0%
$102,277 Wol.
28%
5.5%
$186,719 Wol.
14%
6.0%
$52,180 Wol.
13%
7.0%
$21,511 Wol.
10%
10.0%
$26,006 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$388,693Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$388,693Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.3 percent through April 2026 following modest nonfarm payroll gains of around 115,000 that month, reflecting a labor market that has cooled from its post-pandemic tightness but remains near the natural rate. Recent Federal Reserve projections and private forecasts anticipate the rate climbing toward 4.5 to 4.8 percent by year-end, driven by slower hiring momentum, declining labor-force participation, and downside risks from elevated policy uncertainty. Key upcoming catalysts include the June employment report and subsequent FOMC decisions on the federal funds rate, which could influence borrowing costs and corporate hiring. Trader sentiment on the peak 2026 level thus hinges on whether payroll trends stay above breakeven thresholds or deteriorate further amid moderating inflation and potential fiscal shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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