Ongoing heat across parts of the western and central U.S. early in August 2026, including Phoenix tying a daily high near 117°F, has kept traders split on the total number of all-time station records likely to fall this month. Recent July surges that shattered multiple all-time marks in places like Billings and Salt Lake City set a hot baseline, yet variable late-summer patterns, including potential cooling fronts or persistent ridges, create wide uncertainty over the remaining three weeks. With probabilities clustered tightly among low, mid, and high ranges, the market reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing how quickly temperatures moderate versus any extension of extreme anomalies that could push totals well above or below typical August baselines.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
How many all-time high temperature records will be broken at US weather stations in August 2026?
61-100 50%
21-60 45%
101-150 45%
151+ 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
45%
21-60
45%
61-100
50%
101-150
45%
151+
44%
61-100 50%
21-60 45%
101-150 45%
151+ 44%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 15, 2026
0-20
$54 Wol.
45%
21-60
$0 Wol.
45%
61-100
$0 Wol.
50%
101-150
$0 Wol.
45%
151+
$0 Wol.
44%
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing heat across parts of the western and central U.S. early in August 2026, including Phoenix tying a daily high near 117°F, has kept traders split on the total number of all-time station records likely to fall this month. Recent July surges that shattered multiple all-time marks in places like Billings and Salt Lake City set a hot baseline, yet variable late-summer patterns, including potential cooling fronts or persistent ridges, create wide uncertainty over the remaining three weeks. With probabilities clustered tightly among low, mid, and high ranges, the market reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing how quickly temperatures moderate versus any extension of extreme anomalies that could push totals well above or below typical August baselines.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$54Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.Ongoing heat across parts of the western and central U.S. early in August 2026, including Phoenix tying a daily high near 117°F, has kept traders split on the total number of all-time station records likely to fall this month. Recent July surges that shattered multiple all-time marks in places like Billings and Salt Lake City set a hot baseline, yet variable late-summer patterns, including potential cooling fronts or persistent ridges, create wide uncertainty over the remaining three weeks. With probabilities clustered tightly among low, mid, and high ranges, the market reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing how quickly temperatures moderate versus any extension of extreme anomalies that could push totals well above or below typical August baselines.
This market resolves to the number shown in the "BROKEN" column of NOAA's Daily Weather Records tool when filtered to all-time record highs for August 2026. Tied records do not count. The tool is located at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/records.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
The Timescale will be All-Time Records", "Highest Max Temperature" for Parameter, and the month of August 2026 for the Date Range. The number in the "BROKEN" column is the resolution value. Only records broken in the United States will resolve this market.
Full documentation of the GHCN-Daily dataset is available at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily.
The market resolves on September 15, 2026, based on the value shown in the tool at that time. This reading is final. Any corrections, revisions, or additional data that NOAA processes after September 15 will not affect the outcome. September 15 snapshot may not include all August records due to reporting lag but will govern the resolution regardless.
Wolumen
$54Data zakończenia
Sep 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 30, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing heat across parts of the western and central U.S. early in August 2026, including Phoenix tying a daily high near 117°F, has kept traders split on the total number of all-time station records likely to fall this month. Recent July surges that shattered multiple all-time marks in places like Billings and Salt Lake City set a hot baseline, yet variable late-summer patterns, including potential cooling fronts or persistent ridges, create wide uncertainty over the remaining three weeks. With probabilities clustered tightly among low, mid, and high ranges, the market reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing how quickly temperatures moderate versus any extension of extreme anomalies that could push totals well above or below typical August baselines.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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