Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$135,915 Wol.
$135,915 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
$135,915 Wol.
$135,915 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$135,915Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Wolumen
$135,915Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88.5% implied probability that at least one 2026 month will surpass the current global mean surface temperature record—likely July 2023—driven primarily by NOAA's latest ENSO forecast indicating a 61% chance of El Niño emergence by May-July, persisting through year-end and amplifying summer heat peaks. Early 2026 months, including March tying for second-warmest on record and April ranking third per Copernicus and NOAA data, reflect an elevated baseline from ongoing anthropogenic warming exceeding 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with sea surface temperatures at record highs fueling atmospheric heat. Model consensus projects potential July-August anomalies topping prior highs, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists; watch upcoming NOAA ENSO updates and Copernicus monthly bulletins for shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania