SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 109 flights through mid-September 2026 with near-perfect success rates, underpins the 78% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Reusable booster operations across Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, combined with Gwynne Shotwell's guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 missions, align with the current pace and a full manifest of Starlink batches, national security payloads, and crewed or cargo missions. Starship Flight 14's upcoming orbital attempt introduces potential upside through additional deployments, yet its early developmental status and limited flight rate keep totals concentrated in the 140-159 band. Ongoing model reliability and range availability through year-end support this consensus, with quarterly manifest updates likely to refine probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many SpaceX launches in 2026?
How many SpaceX launches in 2026?
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.3%
120-139 3.5%
200 or more 2.1%
$333,898 Wol.
$333,898 Wol.
100-119
1%
120-139
14%
140-159
78%
160-179
5%
180-199
1%
200 or more
2%
140-159 74.7%
160-179 5.3%
120-139 3.5%
200 or more 2.1%
$333,898 Wol.
$333,898 Wol.
100-119
1%
120-139
14%
140-159
78%
160-179
5%
180-199
1%
200 or more
2%
If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 16, 2026, 12:42 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Rozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's sustained Falcon 9 cadence, exceeding 109 flights through mid-September 2026 with near-perfect success rates, underpins the 78% market-implied probability for 140-159 total launches. Reusable booster operations across Vandenberg and Cape Canaveral, combined with Gwynne Shotwell's guidance of roughly 140-145 Falcon 9 missions, align with the current pace and a full manifest of Starlink batches, national security payloads, and crewed or cargo missions. Starship Flight 14's upcoming orbital attempt introduces potential upside through additional deployments, yet its early developmental status and limited flight rate keep totals concentrated in the 140-159 band. Ongoing model reliability and range availability through year-end support this consensus, with quarterly manifest updates likely to refine probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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