SpaceX’s sustained Falcon 9 cadence, driven by rapid Starlink deployments and high booster reuse rates, currently anchors trader expectations for 140–179 total launches in 2026. Roughly 50 orbital missions had been completed by late April, keeping the company on pace for 150–170 by year-end if turnaround intervals remain near historical averages of 10–14 days. Key variables include continued FAA licensing for higher flight rates at Cape Canaveral and Vandenberg, plus the timing of Starship’s first operational flights following Version 3 testing that begins in May. Any regulatory delays or technical setbacks in Starship integration could cap totals below 160, while successful early orbital attempts would push toward the upper end of the leading bracket.