Sustained Falcon 9 reusability, with boosters routinely flying 15–20 times, continues to drive SpaceX’s high launch cadence for Starlink missions from Florida and California, supporting the market’s consensus around 140–179 total 2026 flights. As of mid-August, approximately 97 launches have occurred, aligning with a pace of 10–15 missions per month. Starship test flights, including recent Block 3 efforts and FAA approval for up to 25 annual orbital operations from Boca Chica, introduce upside potential if commercial flights begin in the second half of the year, though model runs and regulatory timelines remain key variables. Upcoming manifest updates and any Starship flight 14–15 milestones could shift implied probabilities.