NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no asteroids with potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the strong 93.8% market-implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS track nearly all objects larger than 140 meters, while smaller 10-20 meter bodies capable of 100kt airbursts—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are monitored with high efficacy. Recent 2026 developments include safe close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 GA2 and 2026 EG1, plus a Q1 surge in small fireballs (largest ~0.25kt over Ohio), none nearing the threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO, though historical rates suggest ~1% annual odds; ongoing CNEOS fireball reports will provide final resolution data through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no asteroids with potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the strong 93.8% market-implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS track nearly all objects larger than 140 meters, while smaller 10-20 meter bodies capable of 100kt airbursts—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are monitored with high efficacy. Recent 2026 developments include safe close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 GA2 and 2026 EG1, plus a Q1 surge in small fireballs (largest ~0.25kt over Ohio), none nearing the threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO, though historical rates suggest ~1% annual odds; ongoing CNEOS fireball reports will provide final resolution data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,235Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no asteroids with potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the strong 93.8% market-implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS track nearly all objects larger than 140 meters, while smaller 10-20 meter bodies capable of 100kt airbursts—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are monitored with high efficacy. Recent 2026 developments include safe close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 GA2 and 2026 EG1, plus a Q1 surge in small fireballs (largest ~0.25kt over Ohio), none nearing the threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO, though historical rates suggest ~1% annual odds; ongoing CNEOS fireball reports will provide final resolution data through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$7,235Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system shows no asteroids with potential Earth impacts in 2026, driving the strong 93.8% market-implied probability for "No" on a 100 kiloton TNT-equivalent meteor strike. Comprehensive surveys like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS track nearly all objects larger than 140 meters, while smaller 10-20 meter bodies capable of 100kt airbursts—like the 2013 Chelyabinsk event—are monitored with high efficacy. Recent 2026 developments include safe close approaches by asteroids such as 2026 GA2 and 2026 EG1, plus a Q1 surge in small fireballs (largest ~0.25kt over Ohio), none nearing the threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected small NEO, though historical rates suggest ~1% annual odds; ongoing CNEOS fireball reports will provide final resolution data through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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