Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026. Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring systems report zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield, consistent with decades of optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have mapped most relevant decameter-scale objects well in advance. Small meteoroids produce frequent airbursts, yet those reaching 100 kt TNT equivalent remain rare and detectable by networks such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. The sole realistic uncertainty stems from a previously undetected object discovered on an imminent path, though current observational coverage and remaining observation windows render this scenario highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
NOWE
NOWE
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026. Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring systems report zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield, consistent with decades of optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have mapped most relevant decameter-scale objects well in advance. Small meteoroids produce frequent airbursts, yet those reaching 100 kt TNT equivalent remain rare and detectable by networks such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. The sole realistic uncertainty stems from a previously undetected object discovered on an imminent path, though current observational coverage and remaining observation windows render this scenario highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,852Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026. Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring systems report zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield, consistent with decades of optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have mapped most relevant decameter-scale objects well in advance. Small meteoroids produce frequent airbursts, yet those reaching 100 kt TNT equivalent remain rare and detectable by networks such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. The sole realistic uncertainty stems from a previously undetected object discovered on an imminent path, though current observational coverage and remaining observation windows render this scenario highly improbable before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$8,852Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA’s NEO Coordination Centre underpins the 96.2% market-implied probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026. Sentry and Scout impact-monitoring systems report zero cataloged near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of that energy yield, consistent with decades of optical, radar, and infrared surveys that have mapped most relevant decameter-scale objects well in advance. Small meteoroids produce frequent airbursts, yet those reaching 100 kt TNT equivalent remain rare and detectable by networks such as ATLAS and Pan-STARRS. The sole realistic uncertainty stems from a previously undetected object discovered on an imminent path, though current observational coverage and remaining observation windows render this scenario highly improbable before year-end resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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